全球天然气市场发展趋势预测

Prediction on the Development Trend of the Global Natural Gas Market

面对近年来天然气供需增速回落的大环境,基于IEA预测数据,对未来5年全球天然气市场发展趋势及特点进行分析。研究认为全球天然气需求、供应及贸易量都将保持较强增长态势;区域供应不平衡日趋明显:新兴国家仍然是天然气市场发展的主要动力,北美和亚洲—大洋洲地区作为天然气主要产地和消费地在市场中的主导地位将更加明显,独联体和欧洲市场将持续疲软;三大主要区域性市场间价格差仍将继续存在,但差异缩小。

Facing with the big environment that the growth rate of natural gas supply and demand decreased fast in recent years,and based on the data of IEA prediction, this paper analyses the development trend and characteristics of the global natural gas market in the next 5 years. It can be found that global demand for natural gas, supply and trading volume will maintain strong growth trend;regional supply imbalance has become increasingly evident: emerging countries are still the main driving force of natural gas market development while as the main origin and consumption places of natural gas, North America and Asia- Oceania area's leading position in the market will be more obvious, but CIS and the European market will remain weak; the price difference in three major regional markets will continue to exist, but the divergences narrow.