大型煤矿建设项目风险评价研究

Research on risk assessment of large coal mine construction project

基于当前大型煤矿建设项目在建设期间发生的事故依旧严峻,导致煤矿建设项目建设能力下降、风险隐患增加的现状。本文在根据以往研究理论的基础上,提出"改进"期望值模型,以提出更加快捷、准确的评价方法。通过大型煤矿建设项目的共同特征,以大海则煤矿建设项目为例,对大海则煤矿从政治环境、经济环境、安全等方面进行评价。利用因子贡献率分析,得到风险发生概率,通过期望值理论得到"改进"的期望值模型进行煤矿项目建设评价。通过"改进"的期望值模型对大型煤矿建设项目风险评价并讨论,得出"改进"期望值模型在大型煤矿建设评价中是一种可行的评价模型的结论。

The current large coal mine construction projects still have happened serious acci- dents during construction which leadedeoal mine construction projects reduced ability of construc- tion and increased hidden risks. According to previous research theories, the authors mentioned “ improvement” expected value model to provide faster and more accurate evaluation methods than before. Taking Dahaize Coal Mine as an example and basing upon common features of large coal mine construction projects, the authors assessed political environment, economic environment and safety factors, at meanwhile, analysis of factor contribution rate were used to get the risk probability, and the expected value theory were used to get the “improvement” expected valued model of large coal mine projects construction assessment. Furthermore, according to the risk as- sessment and discussion of the large coal mine projects based upon the “improvement” expected value model, the results showed that the model was a feasible assessment model on the large coal mine construction assessment.