摘要
通过对HIV病毒传播机理的分析,利用动力学方法建立HIV传播的动力学模型,分析影响疾病传播和控制的关键因素.通过模型分析得到了决定疾病传播与否的基本再生数R0,证明了R0<1时疾病将会消除,R0>1时疾病将变成一种地方病.用收集和估计的参数对模型进行了数值模拟,分析新疆HIV的流行状况,给出了模型参数的敏感性分析.
By analyzing the mechanism of HIV virus transmission and using the dynamics method,HIV transmission dynamic model is built,the key factors influenced the spread of disease and control are analyzed.The model analysis to get the basic reproductive number R0 decide the spread of disease or not,it proves that when the basic reproductive number R0 is less than 1,disease will eliminate.When the basic reproductive number R0 is greater than 1,the disease will become endemic disease.Stimulating the model number through collecting and estimating parameters,HIV epidemic status is analyzed in Xinjiang,sensitivity analysis of model parameters are given.
出处
《北华大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2015年第2期150-154,共5页
Journal of Beihua University（Natural Science）
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(11461073
11201399)
新疆自然科学基金项目(2015211C024
2015211C031)
新疆研究生科研创新项目(XJGRI2014101)
关键词
HIV
基本再生数
传染病动力学模型
数值模拟
HIV
basic reproductive number
infectious disease dynamics model
numerical simulation
