人口变动与义务教育发展规划——基于“单独二孩”政策实施后义务教育适龄人口规模的预测

On Population Change and Compulsory Education Planning——Based on the Forecast of School-age Population Scale in the Stage of Compulsory Education after the "Selective Two-child Policy"

根据第六次人口普查数据,对"单独二孩"政策实施后20年中国义务教育阶段适龄人口规模和结构进行预测。研究结果显示,在"单独二孩"政策实施后出生的孩子成长为适龄人口以前,义务教育学龄人口规模将持续下降,这是化解教师结构性缺编、教育投入不足等已有问题,应对适龄人口波动的"机会窗口"。在人口政策影响效应显现后,义务教育学龄人口迅速增加,尤其在兼受进城务工人员子女影响的城镇地区,这对义务教育发展带来一定压力;但是,人口扩张期不会持续太长,适龄人口规模很快会重新进入持续下降期。在人口变动与义务教育发展关系的新格局下,义务教育发展规划不能因短期变动而时刻调整,要充分考虑学龄人口长期变动趋势所带来的影响,做出全局规划,注重内涵式、可持续发展。

Depending on the 6th National Census database, the scale and structure of school-aged population in the stage of compulsory education are forecasted. It is found that before the children who are born after ＂Selective Two-child Policy＂ go to school, the school-aged population scale of compulsory education will decline continuously, and it is a period of ＂opportunity window＂ for solving existing problems, such as the vacancy of teachers in structure and the insufficiency of educational investment, and coping with the school-aged population change. After this ＂opportunity window＂, there will be a demand peak of compulsory education, especially in urban area which is affected by the children of migrant workers. In the long run, the demand will decrease drastically after crossing the peak. The results highlight that compulsory education planning should not adjust in an instant, but adjust according to long-term change of school-aged population; and in order to solve the short term demand pressure, the compulsory education planning should focus on improving efficiency and promoting connotative development.