日本政局与中日关系走向

Japanese Political Situation and the Trend of Sino-Japanese Relations

2014年12月日本举行了安倍再度执政以来第二次大选,安倍领导的自公执政联盟在众议院选举中获胜,第三次安倍政权于2014年年末正式启动。安倍着眼于长期执政,未来将会继续沿着修宪扩军、摆脱"战后体制"、实现"正常国家化"的右倾道路前进,而"一盘散沙"的在野党难以对其进行有力牵制。大选后安倍在对华关系上频频曝出消极言行,中日关系乍暖还寒。中日两国领导人2014年11月举行的两年来第一次正式会晤所营造的关系解冻氛围遭遇打击,安倍今后能否继续坚持中日四点原则共识、能否真诚改善对华关系有待检验。日本同其他邻国关系方面的前景也依然不容乐观。2015年是中国人民抗日战争胜利70周年和日本战败投降70周年,安倍拟于8月15日发表所谓"安倍谈话",其内容和观点值得中国和国际社会予以关注。

In December 2014,Japan held the second election of the House of Representatives after Abe returning to power and the LDP- NKP ruling coalition led by Abe won the election,thus starting the third Abe regime. In order to maintain his long-term ruling,Abe is expected to continuously revise the Japanese constitution and strengthen military buildup with the aim to get rid of 'the post- war regime'and transform Japan into a 'normal sovereign state'. As the opposition parties are still disunited,it will be difficult for them to effectively contain the Abe regime. Abe's frequent negative words and actions after the election have also damaged the favorable circumstance created by the Sino-Japanese summit meeting in November 2014. Whether Abe will comply with the four points of Sino-Japanese consensus and sincerely improve relations with China remains to be seen. The prospects for Japanese relations with other neighboring countries are also not optimistic. 2015 is the 70 anniversary of the victory of the anti-Japanese War and also the 70 anniversary of Japanese surrender,and Abe is expected to make a so-called 'Abe conversation'. Its content and point of view is worth paying attention by both China and the international community.