国家生猪产业技术体系专栏

Analysis of Large-scale Pig Enterprise＇ s Operation State and Market Early Warning of Pig Industry

本文以国内20个省（市）36家国家生猪产业技术体系综合试验站为规模化生猪企业代表，通过系统分析其2011年以来的生产、经营数据，阐述了我国规模化生猪企业虽然随着全国生猪市场的波动，在销售和价格上同样会出现波动，但生产规模仍保持稳定增长的态势。由于2014年种猪销售量的大幅度下降，全国能繁母猪存栏持续下降，养殖业出现明显亏损以及2015年初生猪存栏量有所缩减等情况。预计2015年5月以后，全国生猪价格下降趋势将得到缓解，下半年生猪价格总体呈上升趋势。

This paper analyzed the fact that although large-scale pig enterprise＇s sales and prices also fluctuate along with the national pig market volatility, large-scale pig enterprises continue to expand the scale of farming, through production and business data of 36 experiment stations of National Swine Industry Technology System. Due to a significant decline in sales of breeding pigs, the great drop of stock of sows, the downturn in hog prices in 2014 and other facts in pig herds, sales and profit aspects, we expected that the national downward trend in hog prices will be eased and there will be upward trend in hog prices in second half of this year.