基于灾变灰预测理论的农产品价格异常波动预警模型及其应用

Forecasting for Changes of Farm Produce Price Based on Calamities Grey Prediction and its Application

在市场经济环境下,农产品价格随供求关系而变化是一种正常现象,但某些年份的非正常波动则往往会给农户带来重大经济损失。因此,能否对农产品价格的这种异常波动进行有效预警就显得十分重要。本研究基于灰预测理论构建了一个农产品价格异常波动预警模型,并以福建省生猪收购价格波动情况为例证明了该模型的有效性。

As farmers and the consumers would suffer much unexpected loss due to the farm produce price exceptional fluctuations, so forrecasting and then addressing them correctly becomes increasingly important today. In order to predict this price fluctuation effec- tively, a risk forecast model for exceptional changes of farm produce price is proposed based on grey prediction theory, and the effec- tiveness of the model is tested by a case subsequently. The result provides satisfyin~ support for the validity of the model.