气候变化对菏泽草本植物物候期的影响

Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology of Herbaceous Plants in Heze

选取菏泽国家级农业气象试验站1991—2010年4种草本植物物候期资料和同期气象资料,采用统计分析法分析了物候期与气候要素间的关系。结果表明：（1）菏泽的年均温以0.55℃/10 a的速率呈极显著上升（P〈0.01）、降水量以84.6 mm/10 a的速率呈微弱增加、日照时数以143.45 h/10 a的速率呈极显著减少趋势（P〈0.01）。（2）4种草本植物的萌芽期均提前,其中芦苇的萌芽期呈显著提前（P〈0.05）,提前速率为7.27 d/10 a,开花期有提前有推迟,黄枯期普遍推迟,其中车前和芦苇的黄枯期呈极显著推迟（P〈0.01）,推迟速率分别为8.89 d/10 a和4.97 d/10 a。（3）气温是影响草本植物春季物候期的重要因素,萌芽期和开花期的早晚与其前1-2个月气温的负相关程度较高,黄枯期与气温存在正相关,但未达显著水平,其中芦苇的黄枯期与其前1-2个月的日照时数负相关程度较高。

Based on the phenological data of the herbaceous plants and meteorological data in the agricultural experiment station of Heze from 1991 to 2010,the relationship between phenology and meteorological elements was analyzed using the statistical analysis methods. The results showed as follows.（1）The annual temperature significantly increased with a change rate by 0.55 ℃/10 a（P0.01）,the precipitation had a little increase by 84.6 mm/10 a, the sunshine time had very significantly decreased trend by 143.45 h/10 a（P 0.01）.（2）The germination stage of four herbaceous plants were all showed advanced tendency,for instance,the Phragmites significantly advancing with a change rate 7.27 d/10 a（P0.05）;the flowering had advanced or delayed; the leaf withered all delayed, for instance, the Plantain and Phragmites had very significantly delayed trend（P0.01）with a change rate by 8.89 d/10 a and 4.97 d/10 a respectively.（3）The temperature was the key factor which influenced phenology, the germination and flowering stage were negatively correlated with temperature for the preceding one or two months; the leaf withered was positively correlated with temperature and was negatively correlated with sunshine hours for the one or two months in advance.