动态路况下考虑决策者风险感知的地震物资调配动力学模型

System Dynamic Model of Earthquake Material Allocation Considering Decision-makers' Psychological Risk Perception and Dynamic Traffic

决策者心理与行为对突发事件应急响应是否高效起到了决定性的作用。针对路况动态变化下的地震物资调配问题,基于前景理论,分别构建了救援中心和灾点决策者不同决策主体的风险感知函数,以衡量决策者对缺货和运输时间延迟的风险感知程度。从道路运力评估、物资流动、决策过程以及物资需求等模块建立了物资调配全过程系统动力学仿真模型。在此基础上,分析了两层决策者不同的决策态度(乐观/悲观)对应急物资调配过程产生的影响,并以汶川灾区粮食供应为例进行仿真实验,证明了模型的有效性和稳健型。

The decision-makers＇ psychological and behavior are critical in the process of emergency response.This paper focuses on relief materials scheduling after earthquake under dynamic traffic.Using the value function in Prospect Theory to measure rescue center and the decision-makers＇ psychological risk perception.a SD model of earthquake emergency material allocate model under dynamic traffic was constructed,which including road capacity evalution,material flows,decision-making process,and material requirements.The impact of different decision-making attitudes（optimism/pessimism）to the process of emergency material allocation are studied as well.The food supply to Wenchuan county in‘5.12＇Wenchuan Earthquake is taken as an example to testify the model＇s validity and robustness.