国际石油价格波动的结构性因素分析

Analysis of structural factors of international oil price fluctuations

文章将石油供给性冲击、需求性冲击和投机行为冲击3方面结构性因素细分为5个内生变量,构建反映油价波动的结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,并运用模型对1999—2012年期间油价波动的原因进行了实证分析。结果表明:需求性冲击无论是长期还是短期都是油价波动的最主要因素;其次,投机性冲击对油价波动的影响也较大,不容忽视;短期突发事件和供给冲击短期对油价有些影响,长期影响基本消失。

In this paper,three structural factors,that is,oil supply shocks,demands shocks and speculative shocks,are divided into five endogenous variables,and a Structural Vector Auto-Regression（SVAR）model that reflects the oil price fluctuations is built to conduct empirical analysis of the reasons for oil price fluctuations from 1999 to 2012.The results show that demands shocks,either in long-term or short-term,are the most important factor in oil price fluctuations.Speculative shocks also exert a great influence on oil price fluctuations,which can not be ignored.Short-term emergencies and supply shocks have an impact on oil price within a short period,but this impact will disappear in the long run.