安徽水稻气象保险设计

A Design for Rice Meteorological Insurance of Anhui Province

为了设计出适宜的保险产品满足安徽省对农业保险产品的需求,建立了ARIMA时间序列模型,将安徽省各市的水稻气象产量和趋势产量分离,得到各市的水稻气象产量减产率,使用固定时间和个体效应的回归模型将气象产量和各月份月平均温度进行回归分析,得到1年12个月份中影响水稻生产的关键月份;再根据从安徽省中选取的9个具有区域代表性的城市关键月份的月平均气温,分别使用Probit模型二值回归的方法确定每个城市关键月份月平均气温影响水稻生产的触发值,并拟合各市的气象单产分布确定Lognormal或Weibull分布模型的参数后带入保费计算公式得到各市水稻气象保险费率;最后,根据4月、7月触发值以及费率进行区划分析,将安徽大致分为自北至南3个区域,设计出一款便捷、简易的农业保险产品,有助于该保险产品在实际中的应用。

By means of ARIMA Time Series Model,the article separated the rice crop meteorological output and the trending output of each city in Anhui Province to obtain the reduction percentage in rice meteorological production,and used fixed time and individual effect regression model to regress analyze the meteorological output and average temperature of each month to pick out the key months influencing the rice production during a year. According to the average temperature of the key months of the nine typical cities,the article adopted Probit Model Binary Regression to determine the trigger of average temperature of the key months effecting the rice production of each city,and fitted the meteorological unit yield distribution to get the parameters of Lognormal Distribution or Weibull Distribution and substituted them into the premium calculation to get rice meteorological insurance rate of each city. At last,in terms of the triggers of April and July and the rate,territorial analysis was used to divide Anhui Province into three zones from north to south,in order to apply the insurance product into practice.