农村人口老龄化对农业全要素生产率影响的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Rural Population Aging Influence on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity

在人口红利窗口即将关闭、农村大量青壮年劳动力外出务工的背景下,农村人口老龄化是否会影响到粮食安全呢?基于1990—2012年的时间序列数据,分析中国农村人口老龄化对农业全要素生产率的影响。研究表明,农村人口老龄化率并不影响农业全要素生产率的增长。要提高农业全要素生产率就必须加大农业劳动力的人力资本投资,提高农业劳动力的劳动力素质;构建对农业的反哺机制,促进资源向农业的回流;创新农业生产组织形式,提高农业生产技术水平,弥合劳动生产率下降损失。

On the ground that the window of demographic dividend is going to shut down, and large quantity of young labor force in country leave to work in cities, could the rural population aging will affect food security?On the basis of time serial data from 1990 to 2012, we analyze in a positivistic way how the aged in rural China could influence the productive efficiency of agriculture from the perspective of agricultural total factors productivity. According to the research, the ration of the aged in country doesn't influence the growth of agricultural total factors productivity. We should invest more in human capital of rural labor force to improve the rural labor force's work ability. Then, the back feeding mechanism for agriculture should be founded to promote the resources back to agriculture. Finally, through the innovation of agricultural productive organization, we could improve the technology level of agricultural production to offset the damage caused by the decrease of labor productivity.