有限理性、异质预期与房价内生演化机制

Bounded Rationality,Heterogeneous Expectation and Endogenous Evolution Mechanism of Housing Price

本文通过将传统蛛网模型推广为双边异质预期蛛网模型,分析了房价的内生演化机制,通过数值分析考察了市场参与者心理预期对房价的影响。结论表明,市场中基本面分析者的预期不影响房价动态系统的稳定性,技术分析者与开发商的预期则导致房价波动,进而影响房价动态系统的稳定性。模型还给出了房地产开发成本对房价动态演化的影响。开发成本不仅对基本面价格有正向冲击,而且当成本增加到一定临界值后也将导致房价演化出现分岔。

In this paper, we develop the traditional cobweb model into bilateral heteroge- neous expectation cobweb model to analyze the endogenous evolutionary mechanism of housing price, and examine the effect of market participants＇ psychological expectations upon housing prices through numerical analysis. The results show that, the expectation of fundamentalists does not seem to affect the stability of housing price dynamic system, while the expectation of chartists and developers lead to price fluctuations, thereby affecting the stability of housing price dynamic system. The model also researches the influence of real estate development costs on the dynamic evolution of house price. Development costs not only have positive impact on the fundamental price, but also lead to price evolution bifurcation when the cost increases to a certain critical value.