区域煤炭资源流动及其宏观经济效应初探——以内蒙古为例

Regional coal resources flow and its macroeconomic effects:a case of Inner Mongolia

从流量、流向以及流动通道三方面,探讨了内蒙古煤炭资源流动平衡现状,采用向量自回归模型解析了内蒙古煤炭资源流动与其宏观经济发展的相互作用关系,结果表明:(1)内蒙古已成长为中国最大的能源输出基地,煤炭交流活动主要集中在其周边地区,尤以华北和东北地区为主。(2)内蒙古铁路煤炭运能不足,缺乏独立、完善的运输网络。(3)内蒙古煤炭资源流动与区内经济发展水平的提高、重工业的发展、第三产业发展以及税收增长均存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,且对区内重工业发展和税收增长具有明显的单向推动作用,但对区内人均GDP和第三产业发展的促进作用相对比较微弱。(4)建立独立、完善的煤炭运输网络;重视发展煤炭运输及其相关服务业;转变能源输出战略,提高输出资源附加值,带动区内煤炭工业以及整体经济发展水平提高的政策建议。

At present,resources flow has become new research angle of view and disciplinary growing point of resource sciences. There existed complex energy resources flow between different regions of China,which played a major role in the solution of spatial conflict of energy production and consumption as well as guaranteeing proper functioning of regional economy. Inner Mongolia has become China＇s largest coal exporter,which has had a positive impact to China＇s energy supply pattern. From the quantity of flow,flow directions and flow corridors,this paper evaluated and discussed the balance status of coal resources flow and problems in Inner Mongolia of China,and next employed VAR model and IRF to make an analysis on the reciprocity relationship between Inner Mongolia＇s coal resources flow and its macroeconomic development,and put forward some policy suggestions. Related research data mainly comes from＂Compilation of Statistical Data of China Coal Industry（1949-2009）＂and＂China Energy Statistical Yearbook＂of calendar year. The results of the study show as follows：（1）Inner Mongolia coal resources output strongly,it has become the first energy output base. Tianjin and Hebei Province,along with three provinces in Northeast China have the largest input quantity of Inner Mongolia coal by railway. The quantity of Inner Mongolia coal＇s destination has been declining,and provinces which have disappeared mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal,central China and northwest China. Inner Mongolia coal resources flow mainly concentrated in the surrounding area,especially in Northern China and Northeastern China. It significantly reveals the proximity of coal resources flow,and it also shows that coal resources potential difference is the main factor to resources flux and flow directions. Inner Mongolia coal transporting by highway mainly service for Lanzhou City,Xining City,Beijing City,Tianjin City,Northern Hebei,three provinces in the northeast China and other neighboring area.（2）Inner Mongolia is facing a serious shortage of railway transport capacity. This paper proposed to plan and construct special railway channel for Western Inner Mongolia,whose coal launch at Jingtang Harbour and Caofeidian Harbour. That is Erdos-Caofeidian channel. This paper also suggested planning and constructing a new channel to transport coal from North to South,which means from Western Inner Mongolia to Central-Southern China.（3）There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between Inner Mongolia coal resource flow and regional economic development,the development of heavy industry and the tertiary industry and tax growth. Inner Mongolia coal resources flow can promote heavy industrial development and revenue growth,but play a relatively weak role in the development of per capita GDP and the tertiary industry. This paper proposed to further develop the coal industry and related service industry,and build integrated logistics system of Inner Mongolia coal locating at boundary area between Inner Mongolia and Hebei Province. Inner Mongolia must change the energy output strategy,increasing the proportion of coal to electricity,coal to oil,and coal chemical industry,and improving the added value of the output of resources. This paper has made an intensive study of coal resources flow situation of Inner Mongolia and the relationship between resources flow and regional macroeconomic developments. So this paper has some academic contribution to study on economic response to energy resources flow. In addition,the research scale of this paper is provincial-level administrative unit,which provides new research example and material for summary and correlation analysis of research methods and adaptability and integration research of energy resources flow.