基于贝叶斯网络的生物质气化中毒事故分析

Analysis of Biomass Gasification Poisoning Accident Based on Bayesian Network

由于生物质气化产生的燃气中含有CO,导致生物质气化站极易发生泄漏中毒事故并造成人员伤亡,同时考虑到传统的系统安全分析方法在风险评估中存在一定局限性,引入贝叶斯网络分析模型,应用Ge NIe软件将系统故障树转成贝叶斯网络,根据贝叶斯双向推理进行故障预测和诊断,快速、准确识别系统薄弱环节。实例应用表明,所构建的贝叶斯网络分析模型对生物质气化进行风险评估是可行的,且较传统的事件树、故障树分析方法更加科学、合理。

The gas generated in the biomass gasification contains CO,so it is easy to cause poisoning accidents and serious consequences in biomass gasification station. Considering limitations of the traditional system safety analysis methods in the risk assessment,bayesian network analysis model is introduced. The system fault tree is changed into bayesian networks by Ge NIe software,the fault prediction and diagnosis are conducted by two-side reason function of bayesian networks and the weakness of system can be rapidly and correctly identified. The case application shows that the analysis model of Bayesian networks is practicable for biomass gasification risk analysis and it is more scientific and reasonable than the traditional event tree analysis and fault tree analysis.