基于事故树的飞机雷击风险防范措施研究

Risk Prevention Research of Aircraft Lightning Strike Based on Fault Tree Analysis

对于飞机雷击的风险,运用事故树模型的分析方法,建立飞机雷击事件事故树模型,综合考虑飞机雷击事件发生的全过程。通过建立飞机雷击事件事故树模型,阐述引起飞机雷击的主要原因,同时得到最小割集、最小径集,运用公式计算出基本事件的结构重要度。当飞机雷击事件发生后,根据组成最小割集的基本事件,找出造成飞机雷击事件发生的根本原因,运用最小割集方法来制定预防飞机雷击事件发生的方案。同理,根据最小径集中基本事件都不发生时雷击事件不会发生来制定预防飞机雷击事件发生的方案。根据结构重要度的排序,找出预防飞机雷击事件发生的关键途径,提出了预防的方案,方案可以作为相关工作人员的工作手册或者检查单。飞机雷击事件树模型系统直观地展示了引起飞机雷击事件发生的各基本事件的逻辑关系,为降低飞机雷击事件的发生提供了高效的方法。

The fault tree analysis is applied to set up the fault tree model of aircraft lightning strike,to comprehensively consider the whole process of aircraft lightning strike. This paper expounds the main causes of the aircraft lightning strike.At the same time,the minimum cut set and the path set is given and by using the formula,the structure importance of basic events is calculated. When the aircraft lightning strike happens,according to the basic events of minimal cut set,the basic cause of the aircraft lightning strike can be found out and the prevention programs of the aircraft lightning strike incidents can be stipulated according to the minimum cut set. Meanwhile the aircraft lightning strike incidents will not happen when the basic events of the path set don＇t occur,the prevention solutions could also be put forward. Based on the sequence of the structure importance,the key ways to prevent the aircraft lightning strike incidents can be found out and so the prevention programs can be put forward,which can be as manual or checklist for related workers. The aircraft lightning strike fault tree model can systematically and visually show the logical relationship of basic events of the aircraft lightning strike and provide an efficient way to reduce the aircraft lightning strike incidents.