应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测温州市肺结核发病率

Application of the grey system GM(1,1) for the prediction of tuberculosis incidence in Wenzhou

目的:预测温州市肺结核发病趋势,为卫生管理部门防控肺结核提供理论依据。方法:根据2005-2012年肺结核发病率,应用灰色系统GM(1,1)建立发病率预测模型,使用2013年数据检验近期预测效果。结果:2014-2016年温州市肺结核发病率分别为47.13/10万,44.21/10万和41.47/10万。结论:2014-2015年温州市肺结核发病率将以平均2.83%的幅度继续下降。应保持投入,控制肺结核。

Objective To predict tuberculosis incidence trend in Wenzhou,and to provide scientific evidence for for- mulating control strategies. Methods According to tuberculosis incidence rates in Wenzhou from 2005 to 2012,the pre- dictive model of tuberculosis was established by the grey system theory. The 2013 tuberculosis incidence was used to test predictive effect of this model in the near future. Results The predictive results of tuberculosis in Wenzhou from 2014 to 2016 were 47.13 per 100 thousand,44.21 per 100 thousand,41.47 per 100 thousand,respectively. Conclusions The tuberculosis incidence is predicted to decline by 2.83% per year in Wenzhou from 2014 to 2016 ,and the prevention and control of tuberculosis should be emphasized according to the prediction.