中国低碳经济前景刍议(上)——本世纪碳排放对气候变化的严峻影响

The Prospect for China′s Low-carbon Economy Pathway(I)——The Stern Impact of Carbon Emissions on Climate Change during This Century

在2014年北京APEC峰会上,中美发表联合声明,双双做出减排承诺。预测中国2030年达到碳排放峰值时年二氧化碳排放量为117×108t,需要考虑2030年开始实施大规模的碳捕集、利用与封存措施（CCUS）,才能使2050年时二氧化碳净排放量大幅下降至80×108-90×108t。中国必须大幅度降低煤炭消费量,提升非化石能源在能源结构中的比例,使2050年基本情景下非化石能源占一次能源消费总量的比例达到32.2%、积极情景下达到43.0%;同时需要在安全可靠的原则下扩大核电份额,使其在基本情景下占到一次能源消费量的9.8%。2050年中国仍然处于经济增长阶段,钢铁、水泥、工业等部门还需要保持较大的煤炭份额,2050年基本情景下煤炭消费量将降低到23.0×108t标煤,积极情景则降低到16.1×108t标煤。当前各国实施的政策远不足以限制大气温度的上升幅度,早期希望大气温升控制在2℃已相当困难。如果继中国2030年碳排放达到峰值后,印度、巴西、南非等发展中国家也能够较快达到排放峰值,全球有可能在2040-2050年达到碳排放峰值,从而使2100年时大气温升控制在3℃范围内。

Both China and the United States made their commitments regarding emission reduction at the Beijing APEC in 2014.Chinas carbon dioxide emissions are expected to hit 117 ×108t per year when its carbon emissions peak in 2030.China needs to consider taking large-scale carbon capture,utilization and storage measures beginning in 2030 in order to dramatically reduce its net carbon dioxide emission to 80 ×108-90 ×108t by 2050.China must dramatically cut its consumption of coal and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix and try to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in its primary energy consumption to32.2% under the basic scenario and 43.0% under the active scenario by 2050.China also needs to expand the share of nuclear power while ensuring safety,in an effort to increase the share of nuclear power in its primary energy consumption to 9.8% under the basic scenario.As China will remain in the stage of economic growth by 2050,the countrys iron and steel,cement and manufacturing industries will still need a relatively large share of coal in energy consumption.By 2050,Chinas coal consumption will drop to 23.0 ×108t of coal equivalent under the basic scenario and 16.1 ×108t of coal equivalent under the active scenario.The current policies implemented by countries around the world are still unable to arrest the elevation of atmospheric temperature.It is very difficult to meet the expectation of controlling temperature rise below 2 ℃ now.If after Chinas carbon emissions peak in 2030,major developing countries such as India,Brazil and South Africa also meet their peaks of carbon emission in short periods of time,the worlds carbon emissions are expected to peak between 2040 and 2050.In that case,the atmospheric temperature rise is expected to be controlled below 3℃ by 2100.