基于作物生长模型及CAST分类的华北夏玉米生产力区划研究

Regionalization of summer maize productivity in North China based on crop growth model and CAST method

利用试验数据校正并验证了机理性的作物生长模型WOFOST,随后模拟了华北42个站点1961—2006年夏玉米的光温和气候生产潜力。并首次运用新型统计检验聚类方法(CAST),对夏玉米光温及气候生产潜力的要素场分别进行了定量化分区。结果表明,华北夏玉米光温及气候生产潜力均分为5个不同荷载中心的区域。与农业气象传统等值线分区方法相比,将作物模型与CAST相结合进行的生产潜力区划可以更客观地反映以荷载中心台站为代表的产量的时空分布特征。这对于指导区域农业气候区划,实现区域农业可持续发展具有重要的理论及现实意义。

Based on the calibrated crop model-WOFOST, the potential and water-limited yields of summer maize at 42 different stations in North China from 1961 to 2006 were simulated. Regionalization of the potential elemental field by a newly developed cluster analysis of statistic test （CAST） method indic- ted that both the potential and climatic productivity of summer maize could be zoned as 5 sub-regions with different corresponding higher loading centers. Compared with the traditional line analyzing method, CAST analysis is more reliable with the objective regionalization results of temporal-spatial characteristics of the yields with different load centers. This study identified that it is of theoretical and realistical importance to guide the regional agricultural regionalization and to achieve sustainable development by the CAST method.