基于气候适宜度的夏玉米发育期模拟模型

Simulation model of summer maize phenology based on climatic suitability

结合前人气候适宜度的研究成果，以作物生理生态发育过程为基础，构建了夏玉米发育期预报模型。模型中分别建立了夏玉米温度、降水、日照时数适宜度函数，并结合河南省19个农业气象试验站的夏玉米发育期资料，运用通径分析法确定各个生育期温度、降水和日照的影响权重系数，计算出综合适宜度，用来预测夏玉米生育期。结果表明，模型能够较好地预测各个发育期（出苗、七叶、拔节、抽雄、乳熟和成熟）。建模资料的模拟值与观测值比较的均方根误差分别为1．5、3．1、3．4、2．9、4．0、4．5d。运用独立资料对模型所作预测值的均方根误差在1．0～4．6d之间。

Based on the crop eco-physiological development process and foundings of previous study on the climatic suitability, a simulation model of summer maize phenology was found. Firstly, the suita- bility functions such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration were established respectively. Then, by combining the above suitability function with summer maize data from 19 agrometeorological sites in Henan province, the affecting weight coefficients for temperature, precipitation and sunshine du- ration at different development stages were determined with path analysis. Finally, the combined suitabili- ty was calculated to predict the summer maize growth. Results showed that the model could predict various development stages （emergence, seven-leaf, jointing, tasseling, milk stage and maturation） quite well. The root mean square errors between the simulated and observed values of the building data were 1.5, 3.1, 3.4, 2. 9, 4.0 and 4. 5 days respectively. When the independent data was used to test the model, the root mean square errors ranged from 1.0-4. 6 days.