项目计划内在稳健性与其影响因素关系分析

Analysis on the Relationship Between the Intrinsic Robustness and Its Influence Factors for a Project Schedule

针对资源约束项目计划的内在稳健性受多种因素影响的问题,本研究采用16种优先规则,对Kolisch的j30算例集中的480个算例分别制定项目计划,计算出各项目计划的最少关键序列总数、资源使用效率及项目计划工期比项目最短工期长出的百分比L,并通过仿真得到各项目计划的内在稳健性值;同时应用多元统计方法,建立项目计划内在稳健性与各影响因素之间的回归方程。统计检验结果表明,回归方程是显著有效的,最少关键序列数、资源使用效率与内在稳健性呈负相关,项目计划的工期比项目的最短工期长出的百分比L与内在稳健性呈正相关;交叉项检验结果表明,关键序列较多时,L的增大可以有效地提高项目计划的稳健性,这与实际状况一致。该研究可为具有稳健性项目计划的制定、预测和控制提供决策依据。

Due to the intrinsic robustness of resource constrained project schedules influenced by many fac- tors, 16 priority rules are used to establish project schedules for 480 samples included in j30 sample set which was created by Kolisch. The minimal number of critical sequences, the resource utilization efficiency of each project schedule, and the difference L between the schedule makespan and the minimal makespan of the project are computed. Then, the intrinsic robustness of each project schedule is obtained by simula tion. A linear regression equation between intrinsic robustness and these factors is established by multiva- riate statistical analysis. The results of the statistical test manifest that the linear regression equation is significant and effective. Therefore, there are negative relations between intrinsic robustness and the mini- mal number of critical sequences, and the resource utilization efficiency, and a positive relation between the intrinsic robustness and L. The results of the cross term test manifest that the increase of L will enhance the intrinsic robustness if the number of critical sequences is larger, which is consistent with actual situa- tions. This research will provide decision bases for robust project schedule establishment, and the predic- tion and control of project schedule robustness.