北京人口、经济、居民消费与碳排放动态关系研究

Dynamic relation among population,economy,resident consumption and carbon emission in Beijing

基于STIRPAT模型,构建了状态空间模型,定量分析了北京1980-2011年的人口规模、人口城市化结构、居民消费与经济规模四个变量对碳排放随时间变化的动态影响。结果显示:这四个变量对碳排放的变弹性系数均为正数,均促进了碳排放的增加,只是不同时期对碳排放的动态影响程度不同,但近年来均呈现逐渐上升趋势。经济规模对碳排放的弹性系数最大,仍是碳排放主要影响因素;居民消费水平对碳排放的弹性系数波动幅度较大;人口规模与城市化结构对碳排放弹性系数波动幅度较小,影响比较平稳。为了控制和减少碳排放,应提高经济增长质量,鼓励居民绿色消费,合理调控人口规模和提高城市化水平和质量。

The state space model was set up,and the dynamic effects of population size,population urbanization structure,resident consumption and economical size on carbon emissions from 1980 to 2012 in Beijing were analyzed based on the STIRPAT model. The results showed the varying elastic coefficients of these four variables were positive and all promoted the carbon emissions increasing,but the dynamic impact degrees on carbon emissions varied in different periods,showing a gradually upward trend in recent years. Economical scale elasticity coefficient on carbon emissions was the largest,it was still the main factor; elasticity coefficient of consumption level on carbon emissions fluctuated; elasticity coefficients of population size and urbanization structure on carbon emissions were less volatile,and relatively stable. To control and reduce the carbon emissions,we should improve the quality of economic growth,and encourage residents to green consumption,and reasonable regulation of population size and improve the level and quality of urbanization.