基于春季晚霜冻害的天水苹果气候风险区划

The compartment of later frost climate risk for apple in Tianshui

花果期霜冻灾害是天水苹果生产中常见的一种自然灾害,年发生频率60%以上,冻害年份轻者减产,重者甚至绝收。为此,进行苹果花果期霜冻灾害气候风险区划研究,对合理苹果产业布局,有效减轻灾害损失,具有一定的参考和科技指导意义。将影响天水苹果相对气象总产量的开花坐果期4月上旬-5月上旬日最低气温与0℃以下温度持续日数之积作为苹果霜冻灾害脆弱性指数(V),用该期霜冻灾害不同强度发生频率作为相应灾害危险性指数(H),用Pki=1/n∑5j=1Hj×Vij计算所得的霜冻灾害风险系数作为区划指标,按其离散程度划分为低风险、较低风险、中风险、较高风险和高风险区域,做出天水苹果霜冻灾害风险区划,对科学布局当地果树产业和提高经济效益具有显著的指导意义。

The frozen disaster often occurs in flowering period of apple and the frequency is above 60%. It often induces reduction of output and even total crop failure. We studied on frost disasters and made climate risk zonation. We supposed that it would be guided the apple production and decrease the risk of frozen disaster. We use the time of minimum air temperature and accumulated days of below 0 ℃ during the middle ten days in April to first ten days in May as a vulnerablity index to indicate the degree of frozen disaster. And the frequency of frost played as risk index of frozen disaster. According to the result calculated by the model of Pki = 1 /n,the risk zonation would be completed. We made lighter,light,middle,serious and more serious risk zonations. The result would be helpful for apple production and had practical guiding significance in improving the economic benefit in Tianshui.