京津冀地区近50年气温、降水与潜在蒸散量变化分析

The changes of atmospheric temperature,precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in recent 50 years

利用京津冀地区22个气象站1960年到2010年逐日的气象要素观测资料,采用彭曼公式计算该地区近50年逐日的潜在蒸散量。在此基础上,利用气候倾向率检测、时间序列MK突变检验以及年代际分析等方法分析了该地区近50年气温、降水和潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征。结果表明:京津冀地区近50年来气温升高显著;大部分地区降水减少;整个地区潜在蒸散量都在减少,东南部减少的更快。气温升高和降水减少导致整个区域变得干旱化,但潜在蒸散量的减少,缓解了一部分干旱化的趋势。

Based on the daily atmospheric temperature,air pressure,precipitation and other weather data of 22 weather stations in Beijing- Tianjin- Hebei region from 1960 to 2010,we calculated the daily potential evapotranspiration by using the Penman formula. The spatial variation,climate change,decadal variability,and the MK mutation testing were discussed in our paper. The results showed that the atmospheric temperature was increasing evidently in recent 50 years. The precipitation of most area was decreasing; the decreasing trend in east area was evident. The potential evapotranspiration in whole region was decreasing. The change of atmospheric temperature and precipitation caused aridity in the region,but the decreasing of potential evapotranspiration may relieve some drought trend.