我国人口结构对旅游消费的动态影响研究

The impact of population structure dynamic on the tourism consumption in China

人口作为旅游消费的主体,其结构的变化会对旅游消费产生重要影响。因此,文中建立了向量自回归模型,通过脉冲响应函数考察人口结构对旅游消费的动态影响趋势,运用方差分解法揭示其对旅游消费的影响程度。结果表明:随着时间推移,人口城乡结构对旅游消费的影响越来越明显,且对旅游消费变化的贡献率呈现上升趋势;人口性别结构对旅游消费的影响呈现逐年递减趋势,其对旅游消费变化的贡献率以缓慢的速度递减;人口年龄结构对旅游消费的影响较小,其对旅游消费变化的贡献率递减比较明显。据此,可以对不同旅游主体市场旅游产品的开发提供决策依据,更好地促进旅游消费和旅游经济的发展。

The populations are the main body of consumption,its structure change can have an important impact on tourism consumption. Therefore,this research set up the vector autoregression model,and investigated the population structure dynamic impact on the tourism consumption using the impulse response function,and revealed the influence degree between the tourism consumption and the population structure using the variance decomposition method. The results show that with the time passing,the structure of urban and rural population had a positive impact on tourism consumption with a rising trend,its contribution degree to tourism consumption also had a rising trend. The influence of population sex structure on the tourism consumption showed a gradual decline trend,and its contribution degree to tourism consumption had a slowly decline trend. The population age structure had a little impact on tourism consumption,its contribution degree to tourism consumption also had a clearly decline trend. Accordingly,we can provide a decision- making basis for the development of different tourism market products in order to promote the development of tourism consumption and tourism economy.