中国居民部门消费率的结构分解分析

Analysis on the structural decomposition of consumption rate of Chinese resident sector

居民部门消费率涉及从微观到宏观的过渡问题,现有研究对此并没有一个合意的处理方法。将居民部门消费率从结构上分解为国民收入分配中的居民部门收入占比和居民部门平均消费倾向的乘积,目的在于从宏观上把握居民部门消费率的结构性变迁。实证核算表明:(1)中国居民部门消费率2000—2006年的下降主要是GDP中居民部门可支配收入占比下降所致;(2)2006—2008年的部门消费率下降主要是由居民部门平均消费倾向下降引起;(3)2008—2010年的部门消费率波动是GDP中居民部门可支配收入占比小幅上升和居民部门平均消费倾向小幅下降相互制约的结果;(4)2010—2012年的部门消费率上升是居民部门可支配收入占比和居民部门平均消费倾向双双上升的结果。2000年以来中国居民部门消费率这一下降-波动-上升的结构性变迁,可能意味着中国已进入一种由国家-市场-社会三者良性互动驱动的新经济状态。

Resident consumption rate involves the transit problem from the micro to the macro. The existing researches have not found a satisfied method. This article decomposes resident consumption rate into the product of the proportion of resident income in national income distribution and average resident consumption tendency in order to get insight into the transition in the structure of the consumption rate of resident sector at the macro level. The empirical measurement suggests that： （1） the decrease in the consumption rate of Chinese resident sector over the 200（02006 period is caused by the decrease in the proportion of disposable income of the resident sector in GDP. （2） The decrease in the average consumption tendency in the resident sector leads to the decrease in the consumption rate over the 2006--2008 period. （3） The fluctuation in the consumption rate over the 2008--2010 period is the result of mutual restraints between slight increase in the disposable income of the resident sector and slight decrease in the average consumption tendency. （4） The rise in both the proportion of disposable income and the av- erage consumption tendency results in the increase in the consumption rate during the period from 2010 to 2012. Since 2000, the consumption rate of Chinese resident sector experiences the structural changes of decrease--fluctuation--increase, which im- plies that China might have stepped into a new economic status that is driven by state--market--society in a benign way.