基于WASP水质模型与基尼系数的水污染物总量分配——以南太湖苕溪入湖口区域为例

Application of WASP model and gini coefficient in the total amount control of water pollutant:A case study in Tiaoxi Estuary of South Taihu Lake

科学合理的水体污染物总量控制方案是流域水体污染控制的关键.以太湖重要入湖河流苕溪入湖口区域为研究对象,探讨基于水质分析模拟程序(WASP)模型与基尼系数的总氮总量分配方法.根据不同水质改善目标估算相应的水环境容量,建立与经济、社会、自然因素相协调的单因子基尼系数模型,在按不同区域、不同污染源类型进行污染负荷总量削减分配的基础上,预测区域水质的变化趋势,验证水质达标的可行性.研究表明,入湖口区域总氮为劣Ⅴ类水质,总量削减压力较大.根据污染负荷分配结果,入湖口水质总氮近、中和远期控制目标分别确定为Ⅴ、Ⅳ和Ⅲ类水质,对入湖水体总氮污染的有效控制是一个长期过程.

A scientific reasonable project for the total amount control of water pollutants is the key of water quality management.As one of the main inflow rivers,the water quality of Tiaoxi River is important to that of South Taihu Lake.However,the water quality in the estuary of Tiaoxi River does not meet the regulatory targets,and the total nitrogen（TN）acts as the limiting factor not only for the rivers but also for the lakes.Reducing the discharge amount of TN is very essential to the water quality management of the estuary.In this paper,the permitted discharge load of TN was estimated by WASP model according to different water quality goals and was allocated by the single factor Gini coefficient model which involved in the factors of economy,society and nature.Based on the reallocation of the discharge load of TN for different regions and pollution sources,the water quality of the estuary was predicted and the feasibility meeting water standard was verified.Because the concentration of TN can＇t meet the water standard of Grade Ⅴ,the reduction task of TN load was very hard and the concentrations of TN meeting Grade Ⅴ,GradeⅣ,GradeⅢ were set as the short-term,mid-term and long-term goal,respectively.