我国各省份人口老龄化水平差异的多指标测度——基于2011年31个省份的城镇人口分析

The Multi-index Measurement of the Difference of Population Aging of 31 Provinces in China :Based on the Analysis of the Township Population of 31 Provinces in 2011

本文在传统的衡量人口老龄化的65岁及以上人口占比和老年抚养比的基础上,先后引入城镇就业人员数量、用于教育和社会保障的财政支出和人均收入等经济变量,使用六个指标分析说明我国31个省份的人口老龄化水平和经济影响,结果发现,仅仅使用老年抚养比和65岁及以上人口占比两个指标容易误导人口老龄化的经济影响和政策选择,而将经济发展水平作为衡量人口老龄化的经济影响的因素加以考虑后,经济发达省份面临的人口老龄化的经济压力要小于经济欠发达省份,本文为分析人口老龄化的经济影响和测度人口老龄化的经济压力提供了一个新的视角。

On the basis of traditional indices of old-age dependency ratio and total dependency ratio,this paper introduces several economic variables including urban employment,per capita income and fiscal expenditure in education and social security,and analyzes the economic pressure of population aging in 31 provinces. The finding shows that the two indices of oldage dependency ratio and proportion of population aged 65 or over are misleading to economic impact and policy response,and the pressure of population aging in developed provinces is smaller than in less-developed provinces. This paper provides a new perspective of measurement about the economic pressure and economic impact.