四川省生育率转变与计划生育政策的人口自效应评估

Study on Demographic-Effect Evaluation of Sichuan Population Fertility Transition and Family Planning Policy

生育率转变是人口转变的重要标志之一。生育率转变的原因及由此产生的人口效应一直为人们所关注。文章首先利用面板数据模型分析出经济发展水平与总和生育率水平间的对应关系,然后通过设置不同的生育水平方案,利用PADIS-INT人口预测软件,比较分析无计划生育条件下和现实条件下,四川省生育率转变与人口规模、年龄结构变动的逻辑关系。研究表明:生育率的快速转变使得四川省30多年来总人口规模少增加4020万人,同时也使劳动力的总负担得到减轻;但生育率的快速转变也加快了人口老龄化速度,为今后的"人口长期均衡发展"战略提出了严峻的挑战。

Fertility transition is an important symbol of the demographic transition. The cause of fertility transition and it brings population effect has been to be the concern of the people. This paper firstly,using panel data model,analyzes the corresponding relationship between social-economic development level and total fertility rate（TFR）. Through setting different fertility projections and the software of PADIS–INT, this paper analyze,under the condition of non-family planning and family planning, the logic relation of Sichuan Population Fertility Transition and the change of total population,age composition. There were 40.2 million births were averted in Sichuan between 1982-2010 by the rapid fertility transition,meanwhile,it reduced the total burden of labor. But the fertility rate rapidly shift accelerated ageing speed,which put forward severe challenges for ＂the population long-term balanced development＂ strategy.