福建省城镇化进程与经济增长关系的实证研究

Empirical Research on Relationship Between Urbanization and Economic Growth in Fujian

以2000—2012年福建省城镇化率和地区GDP年度数据为基础,通过建立VAR模型探究城镇化与经济增长的关系。Granger检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解实证分析结果表明,福建省城镇化率和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,并且经济增长对城镇化的作用较大,而城镇化对经济增长的影响较弱。最后,根据实证分析结果提出对策建议。

Based on the time series data which includes the urbanization rate and the regional GDP in Fujian from 2000 to 2012, this paper discussed the relationship between the urbanization and economic growth by using the VAR model. And the results from the analysis by using the methods of Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relation, the economic growth had a stronger effect on urbanization, while the effect of urbanization on economic growth was weaker. According to this analysis, this paper put forward some countermeasures.