民主转型、民粹情绪与民族主义的三重映像:从莱比塘事件看国家转型中的政治风险防控

Democratic Transition,Populism and Nationalism:An Analysis on How to Prevent Political Risk from Letpadaung Protest

中缅合资的缅甸莱比塘铜矿抗议事件的发生,反映了围绕2015年大选缅甸国内各方政治力量的布局与角逐,其背后的更深层含义是反映了民主转型过程中的政治风险问题。为了在转型所造成的政治权力真空中取得优势地位,缅甸各方政治力量或求助于民粹主义,或利用民族主义,客观上加剧了转型期政治风险。从中吸取的经验是:转型方向、方式和路径必须获得全民基本共识,警惕精英阶层与大众阶层分化加深;转型顺序应该是先国家层面后地方层面;主导政治力量具备政治控制力,政治制度兼具稳固度与弹性;政治上对国家认同的优先性是国家转型成功的重要条件。

There was a serious protest on Letpadaung Copper Mine which was a Sino-Burmese joint venture.The protest affair reflects potential and hot competition among various political forces in Myanmar around the 2015 election,but also reflects political risks in democratic transition.In order to achieve a dominant position in the transition,many political parties and communities resort to populism and nationalism. What is learned from Myanmar experience is：the transformation direction,methods and paths must be universal basic consensus;transformation sequence should be from national level to the local level;political institutions should be stable and elastic.