新兴市场国家环境库兹涅茨曲线的估计——基于参数与半参数方法的比较

Environmental Kuznets Curve in Emerging Market Countries:A Comparative Estimation Based on Parametric and Semi-parametric Methods

新兴市场国家是否在经济发展到一定水平后污染水平会下降呢?本文使用22个新兴市场国家1996-2009年的面板数据,分别采用参数和半参数方法估计了新兴市场国家的环境库兹涅茨曲线。研究认为:环境库兹涅茨曲线所描述的污染物排放量和经济增长之间典型的倒"U"型关系在不同的样本、模型设定形式和估计方法下并不一定得到满足,但是环境库兹涅茨曲线假说中所描述的污染物排放量和经济增长之间先上升后下降的整体趋势还是存在的,只不过下降的过程可能非常缓慢或者存在着波动。此外,在参数模型估计中,提高技术进步和贸易依存度可以减少二氧化碳排放量,而在半参数模型中,则截然相反。

Environmental pollution has been plaguing the development of emerging market countries. According to the environmental Kuznets curve, the pollution level would drop when the economy develops to a certain level. In order to examine whether the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid in emerging market countries, this paper adopts parametric and semi-parametric methods to analyze the panel data of 22 emerging market coun- tries from 1996 to 2009. The findings show that the environmental Kuznets curve does not necessarily exist with certain samples, model settings and estimation methods, but the general rise-fall tendency of the relationship between CO2emission and economic growth described by environmental Kuznets curve does prove valid; however, the declining course of CO2 emission could be very slow or fluctuating. Besides, according to the parametric estimation results, the en- hancement of technical progress and dependence on trade would reduce CO2 emission by the method of estimation, whereas the semi-parametric method estimation returns a completely opposite result.