贸易便利化与出口多样化:微观机理与跨国证据

Trade Facilitation and Export Diversification: A Study Based on Microscopic Mechanism and Cross-Country Evidence

本文在企业异质性贸易理论的框架下,通过设置贸易便利化参数建立了贸易便利化对出口多样化作用的微观机理模型。借鉴Dennis和Shepherd(2011)的研究,建立贸易便利化对出口多样化影响的计量经济模型,应用2011年出口美国的85国96部门样本数据,采用PPML估计,结果发现:在控制部门固定效应后,出口所需天数的减少能有效增加出口产品种类的数目,即贸易便利化能有效提升出口多样化水平;同时,也考虑了出口所需天数和部门支出存在的内生性问题,选取离赤道的距离和2007年部门支出作为工具变量,发现本文的样本数据存在内生性的可能性极小;此外,还通过替换估计方法和变量、控制国家地理特征和要素特征以及单独考察非农产品三方面进行稳健性检验,结果全部稳健可靠。

Based on the Heterogeneous-firm Trade theory, this paper sets trade facilitation parameters and establishes a model of the microscopic mechanism describing the role of trade facilitation in export diversification. The study of Dennis and Shepherd （2011） is referred to in establishing the econometric mod- el. Using sample data of 85 countries＇ exports to the United States involving 96 sectors in 2011, this paper conducts a PPML estimation, finding that trade faeilitation can effectively improve the level of export diversification. Specifically, when the sector fixed effect is controlled, a reduced number of days required for export can effectively enhance the diversification of export products, with every 1% reduction in the number of days required for export corresponding to a 0.773% increase in the number of types of export products. The issue of endogeneity of days required for export and sector expenditures is inspected. By setting the distance from the equator and the 2007 sector expenditure as instrumental variables, this paper confirms that the possibility of endogeneity is very small in the sample data. Therefore, we put the IV-POISSON regression only as a robustness test. In addition, this paper also replaces the estimation methods and variables, controls the national geographic features and characteristics of elements and examines separately non-agricultural products, concluding that the results are all robust and reliable.