滩羊种羊需求与供应预测研究

Prediction of the demand and supply of breeding Tan Sheep

采用灰色关联法确定影响滩羊种羊需求的社会指数因素.论述三次指数平滑法、传统线性回归模型、模糊线性回归模型的建模方法,并进一步探讨最佳种羊需求的预测模型.在明确羊场运营流程的基础上,探究影响种羊供应的外部环境因素,并运用DEMATEL方法(决策实验与实验评估法)确定影响种羊供应的市场因素.从而,利用最佳种羊需求预测模型,获得理想的种羊供应预测模型.

Adopt Grey Relational Analysis to certain the social indexes that related to the demand of lamb. Explaining the model development of Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method, Traditional Linear Regression Model and Fussy Linear Regession,moreover, find the optimal lamb demand forecasting model. On the basis of specification of operation flow of Tianyuan Sheep Farm, clarify the external factors that have impacts on lamb supply, and utilize the DEMATEL method（Decision Making Trail and Evaluation Laboratory） to ensure the influencing factors in supply market. Thus, a better supply forecasting model of lamb can be got based on the optimal forecasting model of demand.