信息化与中国经济增长:理论与经验分析

Informatization and China's Economic Growth:Theoretical and Statistical Analysis

本文将信息化引入经济增长函数中,利用VAR模型对信息化对经济增长的贡献进行分析。首先,构建包含信息化的内生经济增长模型,从理论上探讨信息化与经济增长率的关系,认为经济增长是由信息化、劳动和资本三者共同决定。其次,利用VAR模型对信息化与经济增长的关系进行验证,发现二者存在较强的相关性,信息化对经济增长的促进作用存在一定的持续性并最终趋于消失。此外,分行业讨论了信息化对各产业的影响,发现信息化对各产业的冲击持续时间存在差异。为实现经济的可持续增长,中国应加快信息化建设,并通过信息化促进技术创新能力和劳动力素质的提高。

This paper introduces informatization into economic growth function and analyzes the role of informatization played in the economic growth.Firstly,this paper offers to construct an informed endogenous economic growth model.It discusses the relation between informatization and economic growth in theory.A conclusion is drawn that the economic growth is co-determined by informatization,labor and capital.Secondly,this paper verifies the relation between informatization and the economic growth with a VAR model,Showing that there is a strong correlation between them.The informatization＇s positive role in promoting the economy will last for a while and eventually tend to disappear.In addition,it is found that the durations of the impacts that informatization exerts on different industries varies from one to another.In order to achieve a sustainable economic growth,China should accelerate the construction of informatization and promote both the technical innovation level and labor force quality by informatization.