镇江市中老年人群梅毒发病人数GM(1,1)模型预测分析

Estimation of syphilis case number among middle-aged and old residents in Zhenjiang based on GM(1,1) model

目的了解镇江市中老年人群梅毒发病特征及趋势,为制定防控策略提供依据。方法在分析2010-2013年镇江市中老年梅毒感染人群特征基础上,建立≥50岁人群Ⅰ、Ⅱ期梅毒发病人数GM（1,1）灰色模型,并进行疫情的预测与评价。结果 2010-2013年镇江市中老年梅毒感染集中在50~69岁年龄段,占81.9%,职业以农民、离退人员、家务及待业和工人为主,分别占51.4%、19.2%、10.2%和9.7%。Ⅰ、Ⅱ期梅毒发病人数GM（1,1）模型分别为：^Y=1 430.08e0.059t-1 328.08,^Y=1 220.37e0.073 9t-1 090.37。结论镇江市中老年人群梅毒发病人数近年呈逐年上升趋势,需及时采取有效的防治措施,并提供合理的公共卫生及性病诊疗服务。

Objective To study epidemiological characteristics and trend of syphilis in middle-aged and old residents in Zhenjiang;to provide basis for making prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on epidemiological analysis of syphilis infection among middle-aged and old residents in Zhenjiang from 2010 to 2013,GM（1,1）gray model was established for population aged ≥50 infected with phaseⅠorⅡsyphilis to predict and evaluate syphilis prevalence.Results From 2010to2013,syphilis infection cases among middle-aged and old residents in Zhenjiang were concentrated in age of 50~69,accounting for 81.9%.Farmers,retiree,house worker and unemployed,workers were major occupations,accounting for 51.4%,19.2%,10.2% and 9.7%,respectively.The GM（1,1）model of case number of phase I and phase II syphilis was：^Y=1430.08e0.059t-1328.08;^Y=1220.37e0.0739t-1090.37,respectively.Conclusion The case number of syphilis in middleaged and old residents in Zhenjiang rises every year,demonstrating an ascending trend.Prophylactic therapeutic strategies and measures should be implemented in time.In addition,reasonable public health and sexual transmitted disease clinics should be provided to control it.