用乘数法估计江苏省3市吸毒人群规模

Estimating population size of drug users in 3 cities of Jiangsu Province by multiplier method

目的估计吸毒人群规模,为制定防治策略提供依据。方法采用乘数法对江苏省3市吸毒人群进行估计,并根据注射吸毒比例计算注射吸毒人群规模。结果苏南某市吸毒人群32 914人,注射吸毒人群4 819人;苏中某市吸毒人群3 081人,注射吸毒人群719人;苏北某市吸毒人群5 461人,注射吸毒人群707人。结论利用已有数据和资料,用乘数法估计吸毒人群规模相对简单、易操作。

Objective To estimate the population size of drug users（DUs）;to provide basis for making control and prevention strategies.Methods Multiplier method was used to estimate the population sizes of DUs in 3 cities of Jiangsu Province,the size of intravenous injection drug user（IDU）population was calculated based on the proportion of IDUs.Results For 3 cities from south,middle and north of Jiangsu Province,population sizes of DUs were 32 914,3 081 and 5 461,respectively;while population sizes of IDUs were 4 819,719 and 707,respectively.Conclusions Estimating population size of DUs by multiplier method on the basis of existing data and information is relatively easy to operate.