中国经济结构调整轨迹研究

Research on the Trajectory of Economic Structure Adjustment in China

采用自组织特征映射法对中国经济结构调整轨迹进行刻画。研究发现,改革开放以来中国经济结构调整过程发生了7次轨迹调整,经系统聚类后可以划分为两个阶段,其中第二阶段结构调整更为全面,结构关联更为复杂。整体来看,中国结构调整过程符合一般经济发展规律,产业结构升级拉动投资需求,并伴随着金融和贸易结构深化主导了经济结构的调整节奏。与"结构失衡"造成发展不可持续的观点一致,从结构指标权值的角度判断,当前经济发展模式对经济拉动存在极限。调整手段应由所处阶段决定,"三期叠加"下对投资刺激政策的消化需要借鉴部分发展中国家过早"去工业化"的教训;出口贸易依然是重要的发展推动力,而刺激内需的做法恐难达到预期效果。

By using Self-Organizing Feature Map to analyze the economic structure adjustment trajectory,this research finds that adjustment process can be divided into two phases,and it＇s more comprehensive and complex in the second one.Overall,it obeys normal economic laws,which means that industrial upgrading stimulates investment and controls the adjustment rhythm accompanied with better finance and trade conditions.In accordance with the idea that structural imbalance will cause the economy unsustainable,it＇s confirmed current development pattern has limitations from the perspective of index weights,and pointed out that adjustment methods should consider the current phase,especially during the three superposed periods,lessons should be learned from some developing countries＇ premature tertiarisation while diminishing the influence of investment stimulus policy.Meanwhile,export is still an important part while consumption stimulus might not work as expected.