中国要素替代弹性之“索洛猜想”检验被引量：3

Investigating for Solow's Conjectures with China's Elasticity of Substitution

下载PDF

导出

摘要基于一般要素增强型CES生产函数,利用1978-2011年省级数据,以变系数面板模型估计我国国民经济和三次产业替代弹性时间序列,对两类"索洛猜想"进行经验检验。研究发现:我国总量替代弹性和三次产业替代弹性均明显小于1,CD生产函数并不适用;改革时期替代弹性呈上升趋势,"索洛猜想1"得到有力支持;总量替代弹性介于三次产业替代弹性之间,且小于产业替代弹性加权平均值,"索洛猜想2"被明确拒绝。最后,就该领域进一步研究进行展望。 Based on China＇s provincial data from 1978 to 2011, we use CES production function with general factor-augmenting technical progress to estimate aggregate and sectoral elasticity of substitution series by variable parameter panel data model, Then we evaluate two kinds of Solow＇s conjectures by empirical investigation. The main findings are ： both AES and SES are significantly be- low unity, so CD aggregate production function is rejected in China; consistent with some recent empirical findings, China＇s AES shows an increasing trend in the Reform period, which strongly supporting Solow＇s conjecture 1 ; meanwhile AES is clearly lower than the weighted average of SES, and Solow＇s conjecture 2 can be rejected. In the end, an outlook for future research is proposed.

作者郝枫盛卫燕

机构地区天津财经大学统计系

出处《商业经济与管理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2015年第3期85-96,共12页 Journal of Business Economics

基金教育部人文社会科学研究课题"时变特征与行业差异视角下中国要素替代弹性实证估计与政策评价研究"(14YJA910002) 霍英东教育基金会第十四届高校青年教师基金基础性研究课题"要素分配演进趋势与统计规律研究"(141095) 天津市高校"中青年骨干创新人才培养计划" 天津市"131创新型人才培养工程"支持

关键词总量替代弹性产业替代弹性时变特征索洛猜想 aggregate elasticity of substitution （AES） seetoral elasticity of substitution （SES） time varying character Solow＇s conjecture

分类号 F222 [经济管理—国民经济] F061.2 [经济管理—政治经济学]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献32

1JONES R W. The Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models [ J ]. Journal of Political Economy, 1965,73 (6) :557-572.
2RAVAL D. Beyond Cobb-Douglas :Estimation of a CES Production Function with Factor Augmenting Technology [ R ]. Census Bureau CES Working Paper,2011.
3CHIRINKO R S. tr :The Long and Short of It[ J ]. Journal of Macroeconomics ,2008,30 (2) :671-686.
4HICKS J R. The Theory of Wages [ M ]. London : Macmillan, 1932 : 113-156.
5BENTOLILLA S, SAINT-PAUL G. Explaining Movements in the Labor Share [ J ]. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics,2003,3(1) :1-33.
6TURNOVSKY S J. Intertemporal and Intratemporal Substitution, and the Speed of Convergence in the Neoclassical Growth Model [ J ]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2002,26 ( 9-1 O) : 1765-1785.
7KENDRICK J, SATO R. Factor Prlces,Productivity and Economic Growth [ J ]. American Economic Review, 1963,53 (5) :974-1003.
8CHIRINKO R S. Corporate Taxation, Capital Formation, and the Substitution Elasticity between Labor and Capital[ R ]. CESifo Working Paper,2002.
9JALAVA J,POHJOLA M,RIPATTI A, et ah Biased Technical Change and Capital-labour Substitution in Finland 1902-2003 [ J ]. Topics in Macroeconimics ,2006,6 ( 1 ) : 1-20.
10IRMEN A,KLUMP R. Factor Substitution, Income Distribution and Growth in a Generalized Neoclassical Model[J]. German Economic Review, 2009,10 ( 11 ) : 464-479.