半参数GAM模型下我国教育收益率的分析

An Semi-parametric Analysis of GAM Models on Returns to Education in China

本文利用广义可加模型拓展了明瑟人力资本方程,应用于(《中国健康营养调查(CHNS)》中我国城乡居民8年的数据研究,发现教育收益率具有以下变化规律:一是2004年我国的个人教育收益率达到最大值。受我国高等教育大众化的影响,2006、2009年个人教育收益率持续下降;二是获得最高个人教育收益率的教育阶段沿着完成小学、初中、高中、大学专科,即朝更高教育水平的方向缓慢移动;三是工作经验年数与受教育年限不具有"平行性",个人教育收益率的变化受工作经验年数的显著影响。

This paper extends the traditional Mincer human capital earning function using a semiparametric GAM models,and they are applied to research returns to education in China by the databases of China Health and Nutrition Survey（CHNS） from 1989 to 2009,some changing regulars about returns to education are discovered：first,returns to education in China arrived at the summit in 2004,returns to education drop in 2006 and 2009 because of popularization of higher education in China.Second,the education stage that has got the highest returns to education appears a slow shift from primary education to post-secondary education.Third,there is not ＂parallelism＂ between working years and returns to education;working years inflect evidently returns to education.