我国地方政府债务可持续性研究

Research on the Sustainability of Government Debt in China

欧洲债务风波尚未平息,美国底特律市也因负债过重宣布破产。中国地方政府是否也会遭受债务危机?成为当前国内外舆论界关注的热点。在此背景下,文中以政府债务的经济效应为切入点,分析地方政府债务的可持续性。结果显示,我国地方政府债务是可持续的,大多数风险指标均处于安全区域,财政状况在总体上依然良好,中国地方政府爆发债务危机的可能性非常小。为保持地方政府债务的可持续性,应继续推行积极财政政策,加快市政债券发行步伐,强化地方政府债务问责与监督机制。

The European debt crisis has not yet subsided, the American city of Detroit also because of excessive debt to declare bankruptcy. Whether China＇s local governments will also suffer from the debt crisis, has become a hot focus of public opinion at home and abroad. In this paper, we take the economic effects of government debt as the breakthrough point to assess the sustainability of local government debt. And the results show the local government debt in China is sustainable at present, most of the risk indicators are in the safe area, financial situation remains good in general, and the possibility of China＇ local government debt crisis is very highly unlikely. To enhance the sustainability of local government debt in China, should continue to implement active fiscal policy, speeding up the pace of issuance of municipal bonds, strengthening the accountability and supervision mechanism for local government debt.