湖南省农业经济增长与主要农业生产要素的相关性实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Agricultural Economic Growth and Agricultural Production Factors in Hunan

该文以湖南农业经济增长及其影响要素为研究对象,采用1978—2012年的相关统计数据,通过构建计量模型,对湖南农业经济增长与农业生产要素的相互关系进行了深入分析,通过协整检验和误差修正模型研究他们长期的均衡关系与短期的波动关系。研究表明:土地、劳动力、资本对农业经济增长均有正向的拉动作用,其中土地弹性最大;短期内,资本是农业经济增长的主要影响因素;提出通过加大农业资金和技术的投入,合理开发和利用土地资源,改善湖南农村劳动力质量和就业结构能够促进湖南农业经济的增长。

This article takes the agricultural economic growth in Hunan Province ,and its influen‐cing factors as the research object by using the relevant statistic data from 1978 to 2012 ,and by build‐ing the econometric models to analyze the mutual relationship between the agricultural economic grow th and agricultural production factors ,by co‐integration test and error correlation model to verify the long term stable equilibrium and short term volatility between them .Research shows that land , labor ,fund investment all positively influence agricultural economic grow th among w hich land has the biggest influence ,but in short term ,the biggest influencing factor is fund investment .Therefore ,the article suggests that we should improve the investment of funds and technology in agriculture ,develop land resource properly .Moreover ,we should improve the labor quality and employment structure to boost agricultural grow th in Hunan .