房地产市场进化博弈与消费者购买决策

On Real Estate Market Evolutionary Game Model and Consumers'House-Purchase Decision-Making

通过建立房地产市场进化博弈模型分析影响地产商和消费者决策的主要因素,得出各自的进化稳定策略,并基于进化稳定策略提出了一种新的消费者购房决策方法:在一次购房决策中,消费者通过比较消费者无房收益和消费者剩余决定当期是否购房。通过比较现有消费者购房决策方法与新的消费者购房决策方法达到满意解的概率,发现采用新方法可以显著提高在一次购房决策中实现满意解。最后,为改善消费者购房决策提出三条政策建议:政府利用公共资源向消费者提供经济适用房和廉租房;推进户籍改革,松绑商品房与户籍、医疗、教育和社会保险之间的关系;加强公共交通和基础设施建设。

An evolutionary game model of real estate market was built to analyze main factors influencing real estate enterprises and consumers＇ decision-making,and the evolutionarily stable strategies for both parties were formulated.And a new decision-making method for consumers＇ house-purchase was proposed：for one house-purchase decision-making,consumers decided whether to buy a house by comparing the benefit without a house and consumer surplus.Compared with the existing decision-making method,the new one had a higher probability to achieve a satisfactory solution.Finally,three policy suggestions were proposed to improve consumers＇ decision-making：the government＇s provision of economically affordable housing and low-rent housing for consumers;implementation of the household registration reform and release of the binding relationship between commercial residential buildings and household registration,medical treatment,education and social insurance,and improvement of public transport and infrastructure.