我国天然气消费影响因素研究——基于协整分析和误差修正模型

Research into Influencing Factors of China's Natural Gas Consumption Based on Co-integration Analysis and Error Correction Model

通过对我国天然气消费和GDP、能源效率、能源消费结构之间的协整关系以及Granger因果关系检验,得出我国天然气消费与GDP之间存在长期协整关系,而天然气消费与能源效率、能源消费结构两者之间不存在长期协整性。从误差修正模型的动态分析来看,GDP对天然气的短期波动影响与长期影响效应作用相当,能源效率对天然气的短期消费波动呈负向影响,能源消费结构对天然气的短期消费波动有巨大正向影响。

Through the test of the co-integration between China＇s natural gas consumption and GDP,energy efficiency and consumption structure and of the Granger causality,the long-term co-integration relationship between China＇s natural gas consumption and GDP was identified,but there is no long-term co-integration relationship between China＇s natural gas consumption and energy efficiency and consumption structure.The dynamic analysis of the error correction model showed that the short-term influence of GDP on natural gas was equivalent to the long-term impact on natural gas,and energy efficiency had a negative effect on short-term fluctuations of natural gas consumption while the energy consumption structure had a strong positive influence on short-term fluctuations of natural gas consumption.