中国区域经济发展差距测算和阶段划分

Delimiting the Stages and Estimating on Regional Economic Development Gap in China

区域经济协调发展是中等收入国家跨入高收入国家行列的重要前提,探索中国区域经济差距演变规律,预判未来变化趋势及影响,是完善区域政策的重要前提。基于文献回顾、Gini和Theil系数测算及Fisher分类统计等多种方法,将1978—2013年期间的中国区域经济发展差距变化趋势划分为4个阶段来进行研究,结果发现:基于空间结构分解的各子项阶段划分有所差异,西部内部差距处于"倒U型"发展态势的前半段是现阶段中国不具备迈入高收入国家行列基本条件的主要原因。中国未来应通过建立东中西部生态环境补偿机制等措施,进一步促进区域经济全面协调发展。

The coordinated development of the high-income countries. The thing that regional economy is important premise explores the evolution law of regional for the middle-income countries entering economic development gap in China and predict the future trend and influence is the important precondition for improving regional policies. Through some method such as literature review, the calculation of the Gini and Theil coefficient and Fisher classification and so on, the evolution law of regional economic development gap in China during 1978-2013 can be divided into four stages. The results show as follows： There are some differences among stage division of four subitems from the spatial structure decomposition. The main reason that China doesn＇t have the basic conditions on entering into the group of high income nations is that the internal disparity of the western region is on the left side of the inverted U-type. Some measures such as establishing ecological environment compensation mechanism among east, central and west and so on should be adopt in China in the future in order to further promote the coordinated development of regional economy in all-round way.