资源衰退型城市人地系统脆弱性评估——以山东枣庄市为例

The Vulnerability Assessment and Obstacles about Man-Land System of Resources-Recession City—A Case Study of Zaozhuang City in Shandong Province

基于资源衰退型城市人地系统脆弱性内涵分析,构建资源衰退型城市人地系统脆弱性评估指标体系,运用集对分析方法测度资源衰退型城市枣庄市人地系统整体以及内部经济、社会和生态环境子系统的敏感性、应对能力和脆弱性,运用障碍度模型分析应对能力的障碍因素。得出以下结论:枣庄市经济子系统、社会子系统和生态环境子系统敏感性变化态势呈现多阶段特征,应对能力逐渐增强,脆弱性呈现持续下降态势,人地系统的脆弱性整体属于低脆弱性水平,但随着煤炭资源濒临枯竭,枣庄市面临的经济社会转型和生态环境保护的压力依然较大。研究认为,需要着重从优化工业结构和壮大接续替代产业、跨越式发展现代服务业和培育新的经济增长点、加强生态建设和提升区域环境质量等方面提出优化路径。

Vulnerability assessments is an important part of current research on vulnerability. Based on the research about vulnerability of resources-recession city, we build an indicator system on vulnerability assessment of resources-recession city, using set of analytical methods to measure vulnerability on man land system about Zaozhuang city, and vulnerability about internal economic, social and ecological system, including dealing with capacity and the sensitivity. We use the model to analyze obstacles about dealing with capacity. The results show that： It is very complex trend about sensitivity of Zaozhuang city, and the dealing with ability to respond shows upward trend, the vulnerability shows the overall downward trend. The vulnerability about man-land system is between 0.208 and 0.377, a low level of vulnerability. With the coal resources verge of extinction, the pressure of economic and social transformation, ecological protection is still greater. Research suggests that we need to focus on optimizing the industrial structure and the growth of alternative industries, and develop modern services and cultivate new economic growth points, strengthen the level of ecological construction and environmental protection to put forward the best solution.