现代金融体系支持产业转型升级的时间序列分析——以广州市为例

The Time Series on Modern Financial System to Support industrial Transformation and Upgrading——Taking Guangzhou for Example

产业转型升级是《"十二五"规划》的重点内容,而金融作为现代经济的核心和资源配置的枢纽,与产业转型升级密切相关,金融体系的发展情况对产业转型的支持作用尤为重要。文章以广州市为例,首先分析了该市2005—2013年的产业结构和金融体系发展现状,接着运用VAR模型实证分析了广州市金融体系对产业转型升级的影响。研究发现:金融相关率不是广州市产业转型升级的格兰杰原因,表明广州市金融发展对产业转型升级的促进作用还不明显,从长期来看,融资效率对产业转型升级的贡献率逐渐增加,而投资回报率对产业转型升级的贡献率逐渐减小。由此可见,广州市金融支持产业转型升级的力度还有待提高,完善金融体系、提高融资效率、控制一定水平的投资回报率,加快产业转型升级势在必行。

Industrial transformation is the focus of ＂The 12 th Five Year plan＂. The finance industry is the core and hub of the economy and key resource allocation. This is closely related to industrial transformation and upgrading, development of the financial system to support the role of industrial transformation, which is extremely critical. At the same time,industrial transformation and upgrading of local financial development, in turn, will act as a facilitator. Taking Guangzhou as an example, firstly the paper analyzed the development status of the citys industrial structure and financial system from 2005 to 2013. Then it used the model of VAR to empirical analyzed the impact that the financial system of Guangzhou City on industrial transformation and upgrading. The study found that FIR was not the Granger reason of industrial transformation and upgrading of Guangzhou City, which showed that the financial development didnt well promote industrial transformation and upgrading. In the long term, the contribution rate which financing efficiency impact on industrial transformation and upgrading gradually increased, while the contribution rate which return on investment impact on industrial transformation and upgrading gradually decreased. As a result, the efforts of the finance in Guangzhou to support industrial transformation and upgrading should be improved. And it is imperative to improve the financial system, increase financing efficiency, control the return on investment in a certain level and speed up industrial transformation and upgrading.