ESRS评分对预测非心源性脑梗死患者复发的评价

The Essen Stroke Risk Score predict recurrent risk in Non-Cardiogenic Ischemic Stroke patients

目的评价Essen卒中风险评分量表(ESRS)评分对短暂性脑缺血发作(TIA)及非心源性脑梗死患者复合血管事件发生情况的预测价值。方法连续入组TIA及非心源性脑梗死患者816例,随访1年期复合血管事件发生率。应用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估ESRS在总体人群、TIA、小卒中、大卒中患者中预测复合血管事件发生的效度。结果完成1年期随访757例,总体人群、TIA、小卒中和大卒中患者的1年期复合血管事件发生率分别是15.98%、16.54%、14.04%、16.97%。ESRS评分预测复合血管事件发生的曲线下面积(AUC)值分别为0.611、0.585、0.605、0.614。结论 ESRS评分预测大卒中患者复合血管事件发生率的效度最高,小卒中其次,TIA的效度不理想。

Objective To evaluate the predictive values of Essen Stroke Risk Score（ ESRS） scale for recurrent combined vascular events in patients after onset of non-Cardiogenic ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack（ TIA）.Methods A total of 816 admitted patients with non- Cardiogenic ischemic stroke and TIA were followed up for one year.We evaluated the predictive accuracy of ESRS of recurrent combined vascular events in TIA,minor stroke and major stroke with area under receiver operating characteristic（ ROC）. Results 757 cases were completed of the 1-year follow-up survey. 1-year period of combined vascular event rate of the whole patients,TIA,minor stroke and major stroke were 15. 98%,16. 54%,14. 04%,16. 97%. The AUC were 0. 611,0. 585,0. 605,0. 614. Conclusion ESRS is equally able to predict the risk of recurrent combined vascular events in non-Cardiogenic ischemic stroke and TIA,although the predictive accuracy of the ESRS is the highest in major stroke,second in minor stroke and lowest in TIA.