基于交叉影响法的农业水价改革联动效应研究——以江苏高邮市农业水价综合改革试点为例

Connected effect of agricultural water price reform based on cross impact method——a case study of pilot project in Gaoyou City of Jiangsu Province

农业水价综合改革是当前农村工作和社会关注的热点与难点,准确预测水价改革方案可能导致的结果至关重要。通过介绍水管单位、用水户协会及农户行为对水价政策变动的理论模型,提出了水价改革方案的联动效应分析方法,利用实地调查数据从实证的角度分析和证明了既定水价政策下对利益相关人行为的影响程度。通过蒙特卡罗仿真模拟试验得出农业水价改革具有联动效应,即在考虑交互作用的情况下,事件发生的概率将产生明显变化。研究结论有利于水价政策制定中充分考虑各种影响和后果,及时采取干预措施使事件按有利方向发展。

Reform of agricultural water price is one of the hot and challenging topics in rural area management that attracts great concern from all circles. Having an accurate prediction to the outcome of water price reform is of great significance. Evaluation method of connected effect has worked out based on theoretical model of influential factors of water utilities, water user associations and farmers to policy-making. The degree of impact of water pricing policy to the behaviors of stakeholders are evaluated and proved by using data of site investigation. It was demonstrated by the Monte Carlo simulation test that the reform did have connected effect, i.e. a remarkable change was seen in the probability of occurred events under the consideration of interconnected functions. The outcome of the study is beneficial for policy making that shall take various influential factors and consequences into full consideration and take timely intervening measures for making adjustment to the right direction.