基于证据理论的前景构建方法

Prospect building method based on Dempster-Shafer theory

为了解决现有成果只重视前景评价而忽视前景构建的问题,运用专家投票技术提出方案结果可能集的推断方法.结合相对比较判断和互补判断赋值的思想构建能够有效提取专家认知信息的概率推断矩阵,并给出其向基本概率分配函数转换的定理.在此基础上,将每个专家视为独立证据源,基于Dempster组合规则和DSm P概率转换方法提出前景构建的具体步骤,并通过应用案例模拟分析演示了所提出方法的操作过程.

In order to solve the problem that prospect evaluation is paid much attention whereas prospect building is ignored in existing research, the inference method of alternative＇s outcomes possibility set is proposed by utilizing expert voting technology. After that, the thoughts of relative comparison judgment and complementary judgment assignment are combined to construct the probability inference matrix to extract experts cognitive information effectively, and a transformation theorem is introduced to derive basic probability assignment（BPA） from the probability inference matrix. Finally, each expert is considered as an independent evidence source, then specific steps for building prospects are presented in view of the Dempster combination rule and the DSmP transformation method. A case simulation analysis is applied to describe the operational nrocess of the nresented method.